Image courtesy of John Marcus.

On Saturday, March 6, over 1,000 of the world’s brightest analytical minds met in the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center to discuss the future of projecting and analyzing professional sports. From ESPN personality Bill Simmons to Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian, the breadth of those who attended the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference covered the whole gamut of experts and interested individuals. “Dorkapalooza,” as Simmons often calls it in his blogs, has spread out its wings a bit and, if this year was any indication, will become more inclusive in the future.

The conference, which was run by Patriots employee Jessica Gelman and Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, has grown in popularity in each of the past couple of years, spurred onward by the fascination that fans, both casual and intense, have with statistical advancement in sports. This year, panels were incredibly varied and addressed upcoming changes in a variety of sports, from typical numerically-driven sports like baseball and basketball to more emergent, varied pastimes like football and soccer.

I could spend tens of paragraphs talking about the convention and delve into all of the minute, less-than-juicy details, but lists are easier and less intimidating for everyone (myself included) to read. So here are five things that sports fans should know after what I saw at this extravaganza:

Image courtesy of John Marcus.

1. Mark Cuban is the man, end of story. He was, for my money, the star of the convention. He sat on the main panel (which also included Simmons, Polian, Morey, Patriots assistant general manager Jonathan Kraft, and author/moderator Michael Lewis) and was frank, intelligent and, to be honest, hysterical. He captured the crowd and amazed us with his charm and candid nature. I attended two of his panels (the first one and another one strictly about basketball) and in both he was the talk of the room. Biggest bombshell dropped? A possible sign and trade for Lebron James this offseason. Cuban mentioned it jokingly, but maybe there’s a shred of truth there… who knows. He’s done crazier things in the past.

2. Defense is the new offense… at least for sabermetricians. Ever since Bill James cracked open his slide rule and began manufacturing the Baseball Abstract, the quest has been to quantify as much as possible the values of all major league baseball players. Hitting is really far along; with all of the minuscule statistics now made like on-base plus slugging (OPS) and park-isolated average (ISO+), they are basically covered. However, the new quest is to find a better means of judging a player’s performance in the field. A new system that will allow players to be monitored in the field at a much more intense level will be a major part of this transition, and it is possible that, once the kinks are worked out in the next couple of years, fielding metrics could be as up to date as hitting metrics.

3. Football is getting more and more accurate in its statistical projections, but it still is not 100 percent yet and probably never will be. Football Outsiders creator Aaron Schatz put it well in the Emerging Analytics panel; because of the system-oriented nature of football, it is much more difficult to determine which players are truly the most valuable. In baseball, great hitters like Alex Rodriguez will play well no matter which team they are on. However, in football, a player like Wes Welker is best utilized as a slot receiver in a three-wide base, and may not be quite as effective if he was in, say, the Eagles system doing Desean Jackson’s role of running downfield streaks and deep slants. This lurking variable makes it much harder to quantify the worth of a given player. Still, at least in terms of individual offensive players, projections and analyses are becoming more and more efficient at showing production within a system’s context. It probably will never be perfect, but at least it’s progress.

Image courtesy of John Marcus.

4. Speaking of football, the fourth and two play vs. the Colts was rehashed and rehashed and rehashed so much that my ears started to bleed when I heard the telltale words. It seemed that almost everyone was in agreement, even Bill Polian; the Patriots made the correct decision to go for the first down on that fateful fourth and two. Statistically speaking, the odds speak on its behalf as well. However, former Dallas Mavericks head coach and current NBA analyst Avery Johnson brought up a cogent counter-example; the 2007 NBA playoffs against the Golden State Warriors. In that series, the Mavericks played with a lineup that, statistically speaking, was the best possible matchup they had with the underdog Warriors. However, they lost the series. It’s an interesting point to think about, especially considering the Patriots decision. That failed fourth and two set the tenor for the remainder of their year. Was it right? Was it wrong? Arguments can be made both ways. However, one thing is for sure; Belichick had the traction to make such a choice, even if people disagree with it in hindsight.

5. The love affair that sports is currently having with advanced statistics, it seems, is here to stay in sports. This convention started as a class that Morey taught at the MIT Sloan Business School when he worked for the Celtics. Eventually, it morphed into a conference. Now, it is sponsored by ESPN, EA Sports and Reebok, among other high-billed groups. Many front offices sent representatives to the conference. More than half of the NBA sent at least one person. I even saw some football and soccer representatives wandering around, from both the professional and college ranks. Front office personnel, reporters, even former players and television personalities… everyone was in town for this event. I mean everyone. This does not even include all of the young, aspiring owners and general managers who were in attendance and made a plethora of connections with various staff members. Some of them are bound to get into positions of power in the future, ensuring the prolonged impact of this relatively new phenomenon. Front offices are getting smarter every day. Soon enough, hopefully, there will be no more stupidity in sports anymore.

Well, at least after Al Davis retires…

- Ethan Hammerman

Be sure to check out the rest of WBRU’s ongoing coverage of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, including exclusive interviews with Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, Houston Rockets GM and conference organizer Daryl Morey, and Football Outsiders Editor in Chief Aaron Schatz.