The Patriots need to bounce back from Welker's devastating injury if they want to be Super Bowl contenders next season. // Image courtesy of The Boston Herald.

First of all, I have to apologize for getting this update up a bit late. It was a busy weekend due to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, but now I am rested, refreshed and ready to tackle a need that, for some, is extremely pressing. A wide receiver.

But not just any wide receiver. A very specific type.

The Patriots run a spread offense, which means that each wide receiver is responsible for holding up their end of the bargain. Three starters, not to mention as much depth as necessary, have to contribute, and this become much more important when one of the top two options is injured.

Like, say, right now.

By my personal receiving metric ((yards/16)+yards per catch)/(drops+drop percentage+fumbles+(snaps/throwing attempts)), Welker was the number one receiver in the NFL this past season, and it wasn’t close. He beat his second place competition, Miles Austin, by almost .7 units, a huge margin. Welker is absolutely devastating in the slot, and is a perfect fit for the Patriots system. All he does is make plays. He is so solid at what he does that he actually hindered a future Hall of Fame quarterback, Tom Brady, by causing him to become too dependent on the short routes and quick throws. This was evident in the action Welker missed; Brady just never looked comfortable in those games. Welker will probably be back sometime in October, hopefully earlier. Regardless, the Patriots need someone to fill the void.

Julian Edelman was a pleasant surprise this past season after transferring from QB to WR. // Image courtesy of media.pennlive.com

Enter Julian Edelman. When he was drafted last year out of Kent State, it seemed that he would just be another flyer type who might make an impact in a couple of years. Then, I saw his short shuttle time. 3.92. For comparison’s sake, the fastest short shuttle at this year’s NFL Combine was a 4.00 by Fresno State cornerback A.J. Jefferson. Edelman blasted by that and then some. The short shuttle is a great predictor of slot success in the NFL. One needs not look further than Wes Welker, who may not have been too fast in the 40 coming out of Texas Tech but blazed a 3.90 short shuttle at his Pro Day. That is the key drill when looking at a possible slot receiver, and it bears watching for the future.

Anyway, back to Edelman. He came in and just blew Gillette Stadium up. He wowed fans in the first preseason game, when he returned a punt for a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles. He kept up the pace, eventually earning a roster spot. In just his second regular season game (and the first game where he actually really played wide receiver) he was called into starting duty against the New York Jets. The Patriots lost, but Edelman had nine catches for 98 yards. Not bad considering he had barely played the position before. This upward trend continued all season, and in the Ravens game he was one of three Patriots (along with Kevin Faulk and, I suppose, Tom Brady) who didn’t completely mail the season in once a loss looked inevitable. Now he will have another offseason to learn the position and gain a stronger rapport with Brady. Edelman’s hands aren’t amazingly strong yet, but they will improve over time. I see Edelman really doing well next year as he continues to learn the nuances of the Patriot slot wide receiver position.

Of course, I have yet to mention one looming elephant in the room; Randy Moss. I had him 14th in my metrics this past season, so while he didn’t completely screw the pooch, he wasn’t his usual larger than life self. I’ve heard many excuses for Randy; injuries, focus, a still tentative Brady underthrowing passes among them. I’d tend to buy these rational excuses, but at the end of the day the big guy has to take responsibility. He was a non-factor in the playoff game against the Ravens; he simply wasn’t there. His best game all year was in the preseason against the Redskins. That simply is not acceptable. I think that Moss’ slight drop in statistics actually shows the importance of having a third receiver in this Patriots system. In 2007, Donte Stallworth would stretch out coverages. In 2008, Jabar Gaffney served as a capable possession guy. In 2009, Moss had Joey Galloway and Sam Aiken, neither of whom were so inspiring. I think that Moss’ success could hinge on who the Patriots bring in as a third guy. If he is a success, Moss will put up better numbers. There is still talent, but he needs a little more help than in the past.

Randy Moss was not as effective last year, but he could improve if Brady gets a viable third option to throw to. // Image courtesy of boston.com

Now for the million dollar question; who will be that third receiver? Currently the Patriots have Brandon Tate and the aforementioned Aiken as options on their roster. Last year, I think it became apparent that Aiken should stick with the special teams. He had flashes, but was uninspiring. He also dropped two interceptions in the playoff game against the Ravens which really left a bitter taste in my mouth. Tate is a more interesting story. He was drafted in the third round due to an ACL tear and being apprehended for smoking marijuana, though many felt he was a first round talent. He played sparingly against the Buccaneers and then was soon shelved in order to let his knee completely heal. What I saw I didn’t love, but I need to withhold judgment because he was still just coming off of the injury. I think he could be a factor eventually, but I’m not holding my breath. He looked much slower than I remembered from watching him at North Carolina. Hopefully he can regain the elite speed he once had.

Josh Reed is the free agent du-jour that many feel the Patriots could go for. He has already met with the team and fits the mold well; good hands, good route-runner and can move the chains. He reminds me a bit of Jabar Gaffney, which is definitely a compliment. He was pretty stellar for the Bills last season as well, accruing 291 yards on 27 receptions. I would not mind bringing him in, though I think a legitimate deep threat would be all the more effective at taking pressure off of Randy Moss.

Now, it is time to look at the rookie crop. This is a good year for wide receivers (though next year is going to be even better) so options abound for the Patriots. It will be interesting to see who they go after. Here are your rankings:

1. Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State

2. Golden Tate, Notre Dame

3. Damian Williams, USC

4. Arrelious Benn, Illinois

5. Taylor Price, Ohio

6. Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech

7. Mike Williams, Syracuse

8. Riley Cooper, Florida

9. Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati

10. Andre Roberts, The Citadel

11. Brandon LaFell, LSU

12. Jacoby Ford, Clemson

13. Marcus Easley, Connecticut

14. Carlton Mitchell, South Florida

15. Jordan Shipley, Texas

16. Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas

17. Stephen Williams, Toledo

18. Emmanuel Sanders, SMU

19. Blair White, Michigan State

20. Jeremy Williams, Tulane

21. Danario Alexander, Missouri

22. Chris McGaha, Arizona State

23. David Gettis, Baylor

24. Scott Long, Louisville

25. Kelton Tindal, Newberry

26. Alric Arnett, West Virginia

27. Eric Decker, Minnesota

28. Seyi Ajirotutu, Fresno State

29. Kyle Williams, Arizona State

30. Freddie Barnes, Bowling Green

This may be the deepest draft class for wide receivers in the past five years. There are least 7 more guys (Antonio Brown, Naaman Roosevelt, Bryan Anderson, Shay Hodge, Donald Jones, Brandon Banks and Jared Perry) that I think should be able to find a niche in the NFL should they get placed in the right system. However, that’s what happens sometimes: positions are deep some years and shallow other years.

Dez Bryant is the consensus number one wide receiver in this year's draft. // Image courtesy of Athlon Sports

Dez Bryant, my number one wide receiver, has everything Andre Johnson has. The speed. The hands. The ball skills. The strength. However, I’m shocked he is not running at his Pro Day, especially after skipping the Combine. I hate when players do this; it makes me question their dedication. This is the most important job interview of your life; you need to be as well-trained as possible. It’s not an excuse. Bryant is a special talent, and I think he’s a top 10 to 15 pick based on that. However, he needs to get his act together a little bit; hopefully he doesn’t take a page from Michael Crabtree’s book and hold out. Though Crabtree also didn’t run at the Combine, so Bryant may be playing copycat. Who knows.

Golden Tate is more impressive in shoulder pads than he is in shorts and a T-shirt (or, in his case, a ridiculous long sleeve skin-tight monstrosity that made him look like he was at least 15 pounds heavier than his actual weigh-in.) He does everything one would want out of a wide receiver, and if he falls to 22 I would not be averse to jumping on him. He reminds me a lot of Steve Smith with his compact frame, ability to get yards after the catch and speed, both deep and laterally. I think the Bengals could take him as well; I don’t see him slipping out of the first round.

The next two guys have very different strengths and weaknesses. Damian Williams is the safest bet in this draft. He runs crisp routes and has great hands. Also, he ran a lot better than expected in Indianapolis. However, there are doubts whether he can be a true number one receiver. Arrelious Benn, on the other hand, has the athletic ability to be a superstar. He just doesn’t understand the route tree and is lacking a little in the hands department. I have Williams over him by a little just because I think that Williams, if drafted late in the first round by a playoff team, could contribute right away as a number two and eventually become a number one wide receivers, a la Reggie Wayne. Both of these guys are good picks late in the first round, but Williams is slightly safer.

Taylor Price has the speed and the skillset to be a Patriot come April. // Image courtesy of saturdaysoundoff.blogspot.com

Taylor Price has been one of my three man-crushes in this year’s wide receiver class, the other two being Marcus Easley and Kelton Tindal. He is a potential number one receiver with good size, speed and hands. I’m smitten with his football sense, as well. I actually have him over the object of everyone else’s attention, Demaryius Thomas, for this very reason. Thomas is athletic, but raw as heck. I see Ashley Lelie/Rod Gardner/James Hardy/name big, fast receiver bust here. His hands are shaky and I’m not sure he can handle the mental part of the game. He’s certainly worth the risk if a team thinks they can develop him, but I wouldn’t expect any sort of instant impact from Thomas. He’ll fester on the bench for a few years and then maybe make his move.

Other Patriot-type prospects abound in this class. Andre Roberts, a little-known guy from The Citadel, is a Deion Branch-type. He has good speed, hands, and football sense. I could see the Patriots using a Round 2 or, maybe if he slips, a Round 4 pick on him. Marcus Easley is one of my favorite prospects this year. He only had one year of production at UCONN, but that was because the Huskies switched to a spread last season and were only able to truly utilize him once they got a new offensive coordinator. He is big (6′2) and fast (4.4 40). He was the leading receiver in Big East play this past season, and is a master of getting yards after the catch despite his size. The one area which may make him more tantalizing to the Patriots than other teams is his blocking ability. He reminds me of Hines Ward in this facet of the game. His hands need a little work, but for a fourth round flyer, the team could do much, much worse.

There are two other late draft sleepers to keep an eye on: David Gettis and Kelton Tindal. Both of these guys are here for one reason. They are fast as heck. Gettis is a former track star and Tindal is reputed to run a 4.2 40 at 6 foot 2. I think that, with one of the many seventh-round compensatory picks the Patriots may receive, a fast wide receiver could be a worthy risk.

So…who is the most likely Patriots prospect? I personally think that we hold off on going for a wide receiver in the first round, just because Tate and Bryant will not fall to 22. Therefore, I have my eyes on the third second round selection and Taylor Price out of Ohio. He seems like an ideal complement to Randy Moss and will allow the Patriots to stretch the field in ways that they have not done since 2007.

Imagine this five wide receiver set…Price is lined up on the far left, next to Welker. Reed/Tate, Edelman and Moss are on the other side. Who do you cover? To whom do you let Tom Brady throw the ball? The possibilities are endless.

The wide receiving core got a nice injection of youth last draft with Edelman and Tate. Here’s hoping they get another vaccine this year, except this time the result is a Super Bowl win.

- Ethan Hammerman