Image courtesy of maryschwaim.com.

Some people see the NFL Draft as a totally random phenomenon, an event that is almost impossible to predict. When it comes to the Patriots, many people think that it is even harder to gain any insight into their draft musings given the team’s reputation for secrecy and covertness.

I was recently approached by a poster in a football forum that I frequent with this question; why do we bother constructing mock drafts for the Patriots when, usually, they’ll end up picking someone who is seemingly a completely random player that no one has ever heard of? I mean, who would have thought that Sebsatian Vollmer would be a second round pick? Logan Mankins at 32? Ellis Hobbs in the early third round when there was a LOT more value available with the pick? Over the years, the Patriots have made some, frankly, bewildering selections with their draft picks that could lead some to believe that they cannot be figured out by outsiders.

So, why do we make mock drafts and try to project what might happen in the offseason if it seems like an impossible dream? Well, for me, the answer is quite simple.

It is NOT an impossible dream.

Too often, analysts seek to base draft postulations on the here and now rather than looking to history for inspiration. It is definitely extremely informative to look at interviews and current events to glean a better understanding of who a team might target. However, at the end of the day, the visits are not completely accurate. There is a lot of posturing involved; in Patriot Reign, a must-read for fans of the team, it is admitted that the Patriots sometimes bring in top prospects for personal workouts even though they already know that the player in question will not end up in Foxboro come April. They do it to confuse other teams (and, probably, the media as well) rather than for their own benefit.

Visits can be inflated and manipulated. However, the pure numbers of the players in questioned cannot be changed.

I took the last ten years of Patriots draft picks and rookie free agents and looked to see if there were any thresholds that the team, seemingly, would not cross. Sure enough, at many positions, the divide between Patriot rookies and other rookies seem to be quite large. Using these past numbers, it becomes a lot easier to break down the draft and, possibly, gain a keener insight into what may be going through the heads of the brain trust in Foxboro come April 22nd.

I will break it down position by position. I will address offense in this post and defense in an upcoming installment that will be posted either later tonight or tomorrow to make for easier reading. Please enjoy!

QUARTERBACKS

The Patriots have, of course, had the luxury of a franchise quarterback for most of Coach Belichick’s tenure. However, that does not necessarily suggest that quarterback is seen as a throwaway position by the front office. Since 2000, the Patriots have drafted five quarterbacks, a relatively large number over such a span. They also signed two rookie free agents, Matt Gutierrez and Brian Hoyer, who ended up making the team’s final roster as rookies. The Patriots seem to like their quarterbacks big; they have not drafted a rookie quarterback under 6 foot 4 since Rohan Davey became a Pat in 2002. Hoyer, of course, was signed as a rookie free agent at 6 foot 3. Davey, on the other hand, barely played in New England, though he did have a good deal of NFL Europe success. They also seem to value mobility, as all of their quarterback selections (except, arguably, Brady) were touted for their mobility coming out of college.

The quarterback position is one of the more difficult ones to predict since there does not seem to be an incredibly strong trend in any direction. However, this historical context could have ramifications for one popular possible Patriot; Tim Tebow. The Gator QB is 6 foot 3, an inch below the hypothetical threshold that the Patriots have not crossed in the NFL Draft since Rohan Davey. I personally do not think an inch will throw them off if they really want Tebow to come to New England, but I also do not believe that the Patriots would take him early in the draft. More reasonable options for the Patriots may be Troy quarterback Levi Brown and Florida Atlantic quarterback Rusty Smith. Both of these guys meet the height threshold and seem to be mobile enough to be nice developmental prospects for Brady down the road. Regardless, I hope that the Patriots do not go quarterback early this year; there are other needs to fill.

RUNNING BACKS

Ah, and here’s one of those needs. The Patriots could definitely use some youth at the running back position. Laurence Maroney is a good player, but he cannot carry the load all by himself, nor does he strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. And behind him there is almost no young depth save for BenJarvus Green Ellis, who is slower than molasses. So, there is a major dearth of talent at the position that needs to be filled. Some think that C.J. Spiller or Jahvid Best could be just what the doctor ordered on offense, as they both would provide an infusion of speed that would serve to diversify the Patriots’ offensive sets. However, neither seems to be a likely possibility. The Patriots have not drafted a running back who has weighed in at less than 200 pounds in the past ten years. The lightest was Laurence Maroney at 205, and he is now upwards of 220. They seem to not value single-down greyhound scatbacks as highly as guys who can ground the ball out for plays at a time and wear down the defense. That has also been apparent in their free agent signings at the position; Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon are not exactly sprinters. Fred Taylor WAS fast…but not anymore. Last year, he was no faster than the Law Firm (Green-Ellis.)

So, who could the team be looking at to supplement their ground attack? If they decide to go running back in the first round (which I doubt) they could do much worse than Ryan Mathews, who is probably the best three-down running back in this year’s draft. He ran a 4.37 40 and, at 6 feet, 218 pounds, is the perfect size for the Patriots offense. I think they could jump on him early; his athleticism and projectability as a complete player may be too much for Belichick to pass on. They will not go for CJ Spiller or Jahvid Best though; you can probably count on that. Ben Tate also seems like a possibility in the second round, and if the team decides to tarry even longer, Joique Bell of Wayne State could find his way into the picture. Tate ran well at the Combine and has a lot of great game tape on him as a runner in the tough SEC, and Bell impressed against lesser competition. The most intriguing option for the Patriots, however, may be Deji Karim of Southern Illinois, a 5 foot 10, 210 pounder who blazed a 4.40 40 and could provide that ever so elusive size-speed combination teams look for. He may be an intriguing flyer to watch in the fourth to seventh rounds.

WIDE RECEIVERS

This is the hardest position to project for the Patriots over the past ten years. They have run the gambit with receiving prospects, from long, lanky sprinters to small, compact route-runners. The Patriots have had a pretty good record of drafting (or trading draft picks for) wide receivers in the last decade. From Randy Moss to Wes Welker to Deion Branch to David Givens, there has been no shortage of great pass catchers to grace Gillette Stadium. Even more interesting is the diverse body types that the Patriots have brought in at the position. The Patriots have only had five rookie wide receivers over the past decade that have measured in at under six feet tall, yet Branch was a Super Bowl MVP and Julian Edelman has the potential to be a future star. Amazingly, they also have only drafted two wide receivers over six feet tall; Chad Jackson, an athletic freak that they traded up for, and late-round project P.K. Sam. So, the six foot range seems to be a nice baseline for them.

Looking at possible receiver prospects for the Patriots it is impossible to not mention Damian Williams, who is as crisp a route-runner as there is in the class and reminds me a lot of Reggie Wayne. I think he could put up 2004 Givens-esque numbers as a rookie and only improve from there. Other possibilities include Taylor Price from Ohio, Cincinnati Bearcat Mardy Gilyard and SMU sleeper Emmanuel Sanders. Any of them would provide a nice dynamic prospect who could play opposite Moss. However, given Belichick’s past history with wide receivers, I would not be surprised at all if he traded up for one in the early second round, possibly Arrelious Benn should he slip. And, of course, if Dez Bryant slips to 22, the Pats will have to take a long, hard look at him. Wide receiver is probably the most fluid position for the Patriots, and it will be interesting to see what happens with it come draft day.

TIGHT ENDS

Tight end is kind of a forgotten position when it comes to discussing the Patriots, but they certainly value it very highly. They spent first round picks on tight ends twice in the past decade and drafted/signed 11 overall, a pretty large number all things considered. The tight end is not a major part of the Patriots offense, but it still seems to be a crucial spot for the brain trust to fill. They also are looking for a certain breed of tight end; at least 6 foot 3 and 245 pounds. The only tight end from the past decade who was below that threshold was Garrett Mills, and I think the team drafted him as a fullback rather than as a classic big man. Early round tight ends, especially, seem to have a similar build. All three tight ends taken in the first three rounds over the past decade by the Patriots (Daniel Graham, Ben Watson and David Thomas) were 6 foot 3 and between 245 and 250. Given the Patriots need at the position this year (the only TE on their roster at the moment is Alge Crumpler) I think we can expect a player with those parameters to get a long look.

Who could fill the void for the Patriots? The answer may surprise some; Aaron Hernandez of Florida. He is not a traditional fit for the Patriots system, but neither were Watson nor Thomas coming out of college. He is already 6 foot 3/245, so he fills the body requirement. He is a great pass catcher and a willing blocker. I think that he could be a very interesting pick in the fourth round of the draft; many “experts” have him falling to that point. Other possibilities are Tony Moeaki of Iowa, Dennis Pitta of BYU and Garrett Graham of Wisconsin. Pitta deviates a bit from my statistics due to his height, but he has the hands and intelligence to be tempting later in the draft. I think, if he slips, he could end up in Foxboro.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

I am going to lump all of the offensive linemen together because, at some positions, there are not enough observations to really make a clear decision as to what the decade’s trend could be. The Patriots definitely have their own brand of offensive lineman though, and it is pretty obvious what they like. They want intelligent guys who can block the sun and know where to place their hands. Size matters to an extent but it certainly is not a deal breaker. The Patriots do tend to view 6 foot 4 as a baseline for tackles and 6 foot 2 as a boundary for guards and centers; anything upwards seems to work for them. However, what is more important to them seems to be value. If they see an offensive lineman that they really like, they will try their darndest to get him. They basically traded Ellis Hobbs, a proven cornerback, for Rich Ohrnburger, a guard who some teams did not even see as a draftable prospect. They drafted Logan Mankins in the first round of a draft when most analysts saw him as a third round pick at best. They drafted Sebastian Vollmer a full three rounds earlier than some projections. It always seems to work out for them in the end.

So, who could be joining the ranks of the Patriots after this draft? I have already gushed enough over Indiana tackle Rodger Saffold in my blog posts; his hand placement, intelligence and strength make him an ideal Patriot offensive lineman, and his fulfillment of their size-weight criteria merely serve to corroborate that fact. One tackle who has not gotten a ton of press as a possible Patriot candidate is Ed Wang of Virginia Tech, though he also seems to fit the bill. He is athletic, smart, and devastating as a run blocker. Guard and center wise, Jon Asamoah of Illinois and J.D. Walton from Baylor seem to be obvious targets. However, I have a sleeper for you to keep an eye on; Andrew Lewis of Oklahoma State. He fits the prototype at 6 foot 5 and 298 pounds and he is absolutely devastating at the point of attack. He reminds me a lot of Logan Mankins, and I think that he could be a major steal should the Patriots try to snag him with one of their compensatory seventh-round picks. The Patriots also could pick up a “bellcow” offensive tackle like Charles Brown or Jared Veldheer early, but I think Saffold may be their man.

After all, he fits their numbers perfectly. And the numbers don’t lie.

- Ethan Hammerman

- On to Part 2…